A battle begins in the trucking industry – like Godzilla vs. King Kong or Superman vs. the powerless Batman.
But this battle probably wouldn’t sell many movie tickets outside of nature nerds and transportation officials, because it’s about what type of trucks will replace the diesel-powered Class 8s. Will they be battery-electric vehicles? Or will it be fuel cell electric trucks, the hydrogen users?
The battle between BEVs and FCEVs is quietly being waged behind the scenes and at conferences as fleets look to a zero-emissions future. At stake for OEMs are the hearts and minds — and orders — of large and well-capitalized fleets, likely the first customers to order zero-emission vehicles in North America.
The proportions of the match depend on who you ask, and the answers can also be based on which power those people prefer. But one thing seems clear as 2022 begins: Batteries are leading the way, though by no means the clear winner.
The elusive hydrogen highway
For industry insiders, it’s a familiar conversation. And one in which the industry leader has reversed itself.
In the 2000s, former President George W. Bush and former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger embraced hydrogen and talked about the “hydrogen highways” of the future.
In 2004, Schwarzenegger signed an executive order to create a hydrogen highway — defined as a network of hydrogen fueling stations based along major routes — by 2010, when the governor hoped to have 200 hydrogen fueling stations. And then these highways were not made.
Chris Nelder, host of the “Energy Transition Show” and an advocate of electric trucks, said the market doesn’t see the benefit or long-term viability of hydrogen fuel cells — not even for passenger cars.
Meanwhile, BEV advocates continued to drift away, despite cheap gas and competition from other green programs, including hybrids and natural gas.
“Electric vehicles have completely gone with the market.”
Chris Nelder
Host of the “Energy Transition Show”
Then came Tesla, with its sleek and sought-after electric cars that snapped up celebrities. Tesla used its momentum to develop the Semi, a Class 8 model whose production it keeps getting delayed.
Now, the federal government newly incorporated Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, also known as the bipartisan infrastructure bill, contains $7.5 billion to build a network of EV chargers. President Joe Biden’s goal is to build 500,000 charging stations for battery-powered electric cars and trucks.
“Electric vehicles have completely gone with the market,” Nelder said. “The reason is that electricity is everywhere.”
Usage numbers also show an electric advantage. Tim Denoyer, vice president of ACT Research, said that while it is difficult to pin down the number of battery electric trucks and hydrogen trucks in operation in North America, one estimate puts the number of Class 8 BEVs at between 4,000 and 5,000. For fuel cell trucks, “I’d be surprised if it’s in the hundreds,” Denoyer said.
Nelder said he sees the writing, or numbers, on the wall. It sees Daimler Trucks using battery electric trucks, while at the same time many private fleets such as PepsiCo and Amazon are turning to lighter battery electric trucks for their deliveries. It’s possible to lose hydrogen everywhere, even in Class 8, Nelder said.
The CEEs, too, have shown that the tide is beginning to turn.
At the ACT Expo in the spring of 2019, Roger Nielsen, then CEO of Daimler Trucks, gave a keynote speech in which he said the country’s largest truck maker would focus exclusively on battery electric trucks. Later in April 2021, Traton stated that the future of heavy trucks was battery electric.
“Hydrogen trucks … will lose more and more ground to – increasingly practical – electric trucks, simply because the latter are cheaper to run.” written by Matthias Gründler and Andreas Kammel of Traton.
The two officials wrote that even as hydrogen prices fall, electric trucks will have a continued advantage.
“Trucks are capital goods that are used heavily and are much more expensive to fuel than to acquire,” Gründler and Kammel wrote. “The more electric trucks are used, the bigger their energy cost advantage becomes. And so, the common belief that hydrogen trucks are for long-haul and electric trucks are just for short-haul use is starting to fall apart.”
Electric trucks, of course, have their own challenges. On January 12, the North American Council on Freight Efficiency and the Rocky Mountain Institute released a study on the use of electric trucks. It summarizes what the agencies think Canada and the United States would need to charge Class 3, 4 and 5 trucks and vans, Class 6 box trucks, Class 8 tractor terminals, and Class 8 regional tow tractors in those countries.
The groups together add up to about 5.2 million trucks, according to the study, and would require a total of 168,582 gigawatt-hours annually to charge. But in return, more than 100 million metric tons of carbon will be avoided.
Class 8 trucks need more than 60K gWh per year for regional transport
Market segments and annual electricity required for charging, in gigawatt hours.
May the best use case win
The diverse applications of heavy trucks create multiple openings for electric and hydrogen-fueled trucks to contend for optimal use. Longer distances are not yet ideal for battery electric trucks, and fuel cell electric truck manufacturers are keenly eyeing these missions. For now, the shorter the journeys, the better for battery electric trucks.
Parker Meeks, chief strategy officer at Hyzon, said truck buyers have three main goals for sizing up a zero-emissions truck. One is the design of the truck itself. The other is the cost, for service and replacement. The final one is fuel availability.
“It all comes down to fuel, honestly,” Meeks said.
When fleets consider zero-emission vehicles, they first size up what these heavy-duty vehicles can do in the five big applications.
But many fleet managers look beyond these five applications and wonder whether BEVs will outperform FCEVs, resulting in a clear winner across the industry, according to Mike Roeth, executive director of NACFE.
The 5 main applications for heavy vehicles |
---|
Buses |
Garden work |
LTL |
Regional TL |
Long distance TL |
Source: Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president
Roeth said in a meeting with fleet executives, they wanted to know who would win the battle for sales supremacy.
“We like matches in a cage, don’t we?” Roeth said. “It’s a hot topic.”
For fleets, the strategy is more slow and steady on BEV and FCEV adoption in the Class 8 sector. And it looks like electric has some edge, especially with shorter haul fleets like LTL and last mile.
XPO Logistics is testing several Class 8 electric trucks, manufactured by Daimler Trucks, at a facility in Hayward, California. Its pilot programs in France and Spain, where government officials are pushing green energy harder, are a little further along, according to Joseph Checkler, XPO’s vice president of public relations and social media.
“There are many opportunities for electric trucks, but there are technical and financial hurdles for the industry before we reach critical mass,” Checkler said.
But XPO’s LTL competitor, Saia, decided the BEV market would be triple digits. On January 6, Saia signed a letter of intent for 100 class 8 electric trucks from Nikolas. Saia officials said the deal came after successful protests. Deliveries will take place between 2022 and 2024, with the first 25 likely to arrive in 2022, Saia officials said.
OEMs are preparing for a mixed future
Fuel cell companies believe the future is a combination of technologies to achieve zero emissions. One of them will be hydrogen, because BEVs have problems with range and long charging times.
One application where hydrogen could make some headway is garbage collection, according to Meeks. While several municipalities, including New York City, are testing electric garbage trucks, “most of them don’t have a lot of desire to try a second one,” Meeks said.
The frequent stops-and-starts of garbage collection, combined with freight collection, tax the batteries, Meeks said.
The Class 8 long-haul market is also attractive to Hyzon. Meeks said the fuel cell prototypes have a range of 375 miles, and that could rise to 400 miles, a comforting number for range-stressed fleets.
Unlike electricity, the hydrogen grid is not built. Thus, Hyzon plans to make arrangements with partners for hydrogen development and distribution. On November 10, Hyzon and TC Energy said they have agreed to develop, build, operate and own hydrogen production facilities – which Hyzon calls hubs – across North America.
But even as Hyzon tries to build a grid and bring the cost of hydrogen down to par with diesel — something it believes it can do, especially with federal subsidies — it acknowledges that some parts of trucking are dominated by electric power. battery. Hyzon will focus on buses, Class 8 and some intensive Class 6 applications, Meeks said.
Some OEMs target all new sectors. Brett Pope, director of central electric sales at Volvo Trucks North America, said his company is preparing multiple zero-emissions options, starting with the electric battery.
“As there is no one solution for all customers, Volvo Trucks provides different solutions,” Pope said in an email, adding that the company has natural gas and BEVs in production and is developing FCEVs.
Roeth, like Traton and Volvo, said he believes the future will be a mix of zero-emissions options, even if battery electric wins the lion’s share.
“It’s ‘and,’ not ‘or,'” Roeth said. “We are confident it will be both.”